The long-awaited 2026 Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) announcement has been unexpectedly pushed back, as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) postponed the release of September 2025 inflation data. The delay, directly tied to the ongoing government shutdown, has left millions of Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) beneficiaries in limbo — waiting to learn how much their benefits will rise in the new year.
Why the CPI-W Matters for COLA
Every fall, the Social Security Administration (SSA) determines the annual COLA based on changes in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). This index tracks inflation by measuring the price movement of everyday goods and services such as food, transportation, and healthcare.
The COLA is calculated by comparing the average CPI-W figures for July, August, and September of the current year with the same period from the previous year. The percentage difference between the two becomes the official COLA rate — the amount by which benefits increase in January.
However, because the September 2025 CPI-W data has not yet been published, the SSA cannot finalize the 2026 adjustment. Until the shutdown ends and BLS operations resume, the process remains at a standstill.
Shutdown Causes Widespread Reporting Delays
In an official notice, the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that its September Consumer Price Index reports — originally scheduled for October 15, 2025 — will now be released on October 24, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
The delay stems from limited staffing and operational disruptions caused by the government shutdown. This has not only affected inflation reports but also disrupted several other key economic data releases used by policymakers and analysts nationwide.
Historically, the SSA announces the new COLA by mid-October, giving beneficiaries time to plan their finances. But this year, the timeline has shifted — forcing retirees, disabled workers, and SSI recipients to wait longer than usual for clarity about their 2026 benefit increases.
Projected 2026 COLA Before the Delay
Even though the official number remains pending, early estimates suggest a modest increase for 2026. Economists who analyzed the July and August CPI-W data observed inflation running between 2.5% and 2.7% on an annual basis.
If September follows a similar trend, the final COLA could land in the range of 2.5% to 2.8%.
For a typical Social Security beneficiary receiving around $2,000 per month, that would mean a monthly increase of about $50 to $55, starting in January 2026.
While any increase helps offset rising prices, experts caution that higher Medicare premiums, rent costs, and healthcare expenses could absorb much of the benefit gain.
Broader Economic Effects of the Delay
This delay highlights how a government shutdown can ripple across the broader economy. Beyond federal workers, the temporary halt in BLS reporting impacts policymakers, businesses, investors, and households that rely on accurate inflation data for decision-making.
The suspension of CPI-W publication also affects financial markets, particularly those tied to inflation-indexed securities and Treasury yields, which depend on CPI data for pricing and forecasting.
For over 71 million Americans who depend on Social Security and SSI benefits, the delay has created uncertainty — though officials emphasize that payments themselves remain unaffected.
SSA’s Response and What Happens Next
The Social Security Administration has confirmed that it is waiting for the final CPI-W data before making the official 2026 COLA announcement. Once the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the September report, the SSA is expected to release the updated COLA within a few business days.
Agency officials have reassured the public that benefit increases will still take effect in January 2026, regardless of when the announcement is made. Once finalized, the SSA will automatically apply the new rates to all benefit payments and issue updated letters and online notifications through the My Social Security portal.
A Look Back: How COLA Has Shifted Over Time
The annual COLA has seen dramatic swings over the past decade — reflecting the ups and downs of inflation cycles. The 2022 and 2023 increases were among the highest in over 40 years, driven by post-pandemic inflation, while the 2024 and 2025 adjustments were more moderate as prices began to stabilize.
Delays in announcing the COLA are uncommon but not entirely new. Previous government shutdowns in the early 2010s caused similar, though shorter, interruptions. The 2025 delay, however, comes during a critical period of economic readjustment, amplifying its visibility and impact.
What Beneficiaries Should Do Now
Experts urge Social Security recipients to stay patient and plan cautiously. Until the final COLA percentage is confirmed, it’s best to budget conservatively and avoid making financial changes based on early projections.
Beneficiaries should monitor the SSA’s official website or log in to their My Social Security accounts for the latest updates once the final data is released later in October.
While the delay is inconvenient, the increase will still be retroactively applied starting with January 2026 payments — meaning no one will lose out once the numbers are finalized.
The Bottom Line
The 2026 COLA announcement may be temporarily frozen, but the underlying process remains on track. Once the BLS releases the September CPI-W data, the SSA will calculate and publish the official adjustment — likely between 2.5% and 2.8%.
Despite the delay, beneficiaries can rest assured that their 2026 payment increase will take effect as usual, preserving the crucial link between Social Security benefits and inflation.
